Finance

Chandan Sapkota’s Blog

The financial crisis and great tough economy of 2008-9 brought with it a “great trade collapse”: world trade relative to GDP fell by nearly 30 % between both of these years, exceeding the knowledge of other post-war recessions. Why did trade fall a lot, and why achieved it quickly recover relatively? Beginning with the last of the explanations, Kalina Manova and her co-authors provide the strongest evidence supporting the role of credit constraints on exports.

These constraints limit the considerable margin of exports in sectors that are most susceptible to financial stress.2 Furthermore, she argues that such industries faced better reductions in their exports to the U.S. 3 That idea is confirmed for Japan by Mary Amiti and David Weinstein.4 They find that Japanese exporters faced greater reductions in their sales abroad if they were associated with main banks that performed poorly.

Other work casts some question on the importance of export credit. Obviously, in the long run it’ll be a combination of factors that describe the fantastic trade collapse: even if inventories or imported intermediates are more important quantitatively, that finding do not need to detract from the significance of trade credit.

Amiti and Weinstein, for example, argue that trade credit can take into account about 20 percent of the fall in exports for Japan, so that it was not the most crucial factor, but it was economically significant still. 1 Feenstra directs the NBER’s Program on International Trade and Investment and is a Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis. 8 A. A. Levchenko, L.T.

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